What’s Happening in the Natural Gas Market? Your September 2025 Snapshot

• U.S. Natural Gas Storage: As of September 5, 2025, U.S. storage is robust at 3,343 Bcf, 188 Bcf above the five-year average, providing stability.
• U.S. LNG Exports: While still strong, U.S. LNG exports saw a slight dip in early September due to minor outages and scheduled maintenance, impacting domestic natural gas prices.
• U.S. Natural Gas Consumption (Weather Impact): September weather brought cooler conditions to the East and Midwest, reducing AC demand, while heat lingered in the South, creating a “shoulder period” with tempered overall consumption.
• European Natural Gas Storage: Europe’s storage facilities are about 79.7% full as of September 9, 2025, a healthy buffer for winter, though slightly lower than previous highs.
• U.S. LNG’s Role in European Prices: Europe’s increasing reliance on U.S. LNG means disruptions in U.S. supply could quickly affect European natural gas prices.
• Natural Gas Prices (Henry Hub & TTF): U.S. Henry Hub prices are around $3.02/MMBtu, and European TTF prices are about €32.4/MWh ($9.8-$10.0/MMBtu), showing regional differences but overall stability this month.
• Natural Gas Market Outlook for Late 2025: Both U.S. and European natural gas markets expect prices to remain relatively stable, balanced by strong storage, moderate weather, and consistent (but sometimes fluctuating) LNG exports.

Wondering what’s shaping the natural gas market right now? As summer fades into autumn, both the U.S. and Europe are navigating unique energy landscapes. This snapshot gives you the key insights into natural gas prices, storage levels, and demand patterns for September 2025, helping you understand the forces at play for this vital energy source. Let’s dive into what’s happening.

How are U.S. natural gas storage levels looking for September 2025?

U.S. natural gas storage levels are looking quite healthy for September 2025. As of September 5th, working gas in underground storage hit 3,343 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to the EIA. This is a solid 71 Bcf weekly increase, showing the U.S. is injecting gas robustly. In fact, inventories are 188 Bcf above the five-year average, which is comfortably within historical norms, and just a bit lower than last year’s figures for the same time. These numbers highlight a strong position for U.S. gas storage levels, even with consistent LNG exports.

Across regions, the Midwest and East led the way with significant additions of 30 Bcf and 22 Bcf, respectively. The South Central also contributed a healthy 16 Bcf, split between different storage types, indicating widespread efforts to build reserves. While some areas like the Mountain region saw smaller gains and the Pacific had a slight decrease due to local demand, the overall picture shows gas stocks are well-distributed. This strong storage situation acts as an important buffer, bringing stability to the U.S. natural gas market as winter approaches.

Source: EIA

How do U.S. LNG exports impact global natural gas demand?

U.S. LNG exports play a huge role in global natural gas demand, acting as a major driver for both domestic gas use and prices. The strong international appetite, especially from Europe, keeps U.S. LNG facilities busy, often running at near maximum capacity. This high level of export activity provides an essential outlet for America’s growing gas production, absorbing extra supply and supporting domestic natural gas prices.

However, recent data suggests a slight slowdown in this export pace. Feed gas flows to LNG plants dipped to about 15.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early September, a small drop from 15.8 bcfd in August. There was even a point where daily LNG feed hit a three-week low of about 14.9 bcfd, mainly because of minor issues and planned maintenance at some Gulf Coast terminals like Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass. This really shows how sensitive U.S. gas prices are to changes in export volumes. Looking ahead, a month-long shutdown at the Cove Point LNG facility, starting September 15th, will temporarily reduce export volumes further, adding another layer to the dynamics of the natural gas market.

How is weather affecting U.S. natural gas consumption this September?

Weather always has a big say in natural gas consumption, and September 2025 has seen different patterns across the U.S. Lately, cooler-than-normal conditions settled over much of the U.S. East and Midwest, with temperatures about 1-3°C below average. This early autumn chill significantly lowered the need for air conditioning in northern areas; New York, for example, had very few Cooling Degree Days (CDD), meaning less AC use.

On the flip side, some parts of the South and West experienced lingering heat. Texas, for instance, faced a sudden heatwave, which bumped up electricity use for air conditioning. This regional split meant that overall gas demand for power generation eased from its summer highs, as cooler conditions in the populated eastern areas largely balanced out the increased AC use in the South. Looking ahead, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to stick around into mid-to-late September across much of the country. This will likely delay the usual seasonal increase in heating demand. The U.S. gas market is currently in a “shoulder period” – a time when there isn’t heavy cooling or heating demand nationwide, which has kept domestic natural gas consumption in check and limited upward pressure on prices.

Source: Wunderground, CPC NOAA

Are European natural gas storage levels ready for winter?

Yes, European natural gas storage levels are building a good buffer for winter. Europe’s natural gas market is also in a transition phase, with storage steadily increasing and weather-driven demand moderating. As of September 9, 2025, European gas storage facilities were approximately 79.7% full. While this is a bit lower than the unusually high levels seen in 2023-2024 (which were over 90% at the same time), it’s still comfortably above the 2021 figure of around 69%. This shows that Europe’s strategy of consistent injections throughout the summer is paying off, creating a significant reserve before the cold winter heating season kicks in.

Regionally, the situation is mostly positive. Countries in Western and Southern Europe, including Spain, France, Italy, and Germany, report high to very high storage levels, indicating strong preparation for winter. Central European nations like Poland and Austria are also in a solid position. However, some areas in Northern Europe (Sweden, Denmark) and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Belarus) show lower to moderate levels, highlighting that readiness can vary. On average, the continent’s fill rate points to stable supply conditions, supported by consistent LNG inflows and lower-than-expected demand, providing a degree of security for the European natural gas market.

Source: AGSI GIE

How do U.S. LNG exports influence European natural gas prices?

U.S. LNG exports significantly influence European natural gas prices because Europe has shifted its energy strategy dramatically, becoming much more reliant on imported LNG, with the United States as a key supplier. This strategic move directly impacts what Europeans pay for gas. The steady and abundant flow of American LNG has successfully met Europe’s market needs, helping to push benchmark prices down. However, this global connection also brings new risks of price swings.

Europe’s growing dependence on U.S. LNG means any interruption on the U.S. side – say, a severe Gulf Coast hurricane or an intense heatwave that cuts off LNG exports – could quickly tighten European supply and send prices soaring. Historically, weather events in the U.S. Gulf have indeed taken LNG terminals offline, and Europe’s sensitive import balance would immediately feel the effects. Estimates suggest the U.S. could soon supply 70-80% of Europe’s LNG imports once remaining Russian volumes are fully replaced, which would be almost a quarter of Europe’s total gas supply. This strong reliance means European natural gas prices are now closely tied to the smooth, uninterrupted flow of LNG from the U.S. For now, these flows are plentiful, helping to stabilize the European gas market as autumn arrives.

What are the current natural gas prices for Henry Hub and TTF, and what do they mean?

The current natural gas market in both the U.S. and Europe shows a mix of good supply and moderate weather-driven demand, leading to relatively stable but still volatile price movements. In Europe, TTF benchmark prices have been hovering around €32.4/MWh, which works out to roughly $9.8-$10.0 per MMBtu. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Henry Hub futures are near $3.02 per MMBtu. Both benchmarks have seen some price swings during the week, but overall, prices have stayed largely within a range, indicating a period of balance influenced by various factors.

The difference between these benchmarks highlights the distinct regional dynamics and supply-demand situations. While strong storage levels and mild weather tend to push prices down, consistent LNG export demand prevents significant price drops, especially in the U.S. European prices, although higher, are kept in check by high storage and moderate weather, but they remain very sensitive to any potential disruptions in U.S. LNG supply. This complex balance shows the global nature of the natural gas market, where local conditions and international trade constantly interact to shape price paths.

What’s the natural gas market outlook for the U.S. and Europe for late 2025?

The natural gas market outlook for the remainder of 2025 will depend on how current factors evolve. In the U.S., Henry Hub prices are expected to trade between $2.90-$3.20 per MMBtu in the coming weeks. While ample domestic storage and ongoing mild weather are bearish factors, the steady strength of LNG export demand is likely to prevent any major downward price spiral. The upcoming planned maintenance at LNG facilities, though temporary, could further reduce export volumes and create short-term price pressure.

Similarly, European TTF prices are forecast to stay around $9.5-$10.5 per MMBtu in September. High storage levels across much of the continent and continued moderate weather are keeping the European gas market relatively calm. However, Europe’s significant reliance on U.S. LNG means that any unexpected U.S. supply disruption – from hurricanes, maintenance issues, or policy changes – could quickly cause prices to jump. The delicate balance between plenty of supply, moderate demand, and the ever-present risk of supply chain interruptions will define the natural gas outlook as both continents get ready for colder months. It’s smart to keep an eye on these shifting factors.